UFC Fight Night 93: Josh Barnett favored to win over Andrei Arlovski
September 3rd’s UFC Fight Night 93 is right around the corner and sportsbooks have been refining the odds for the upcoming fight between former UFC Heavyweight Champions Andrei Arlovski (+130) and Josh Barnett (-150). Let’s walk through what the odds mean for those who are new to MMA odds, as well some considerations that may have gone into the mma betting odds at the time of writing this. For the latest, visit MMA betting odds at William Hill.
The Odds Explained:
- Josh Barnett (-150)
- Barnett is favored at -150 odds, which means that for $1.50 bet, $1.00 is won if Barnett takes the victory. Take a common wager of $100. If one were to bet $100 on Barnett and he wins, the bet would bring home $15.00.
- Andrei Arlovski (+130)
- Conversely, for every $1.00 bet on Arlovski, if Arlovski wins, $1.30 is won. If one were to bet $100 on Arlovski and he wins, $30 in winnings would go to the winner.
Based on our evaluation, we can see why Barnett is favored:
Winning History – Barnett Favored
Josh Barnett has a total of 34 wins over 42 fights, while Arlovski has 25 wins over 38 fights. Barnett has both more professional fights and 15% greater history of wins over Andrei Arlovski. As a result, Barnett is more favorable than Arlovski.
81% Win Record: Josh Barnett
66% Win Record: Andrei Arlovski
Recent Performance – Barnett Favored
Josh Barnett has had 2 fights since September of 2015, winning one of the two fights (50% win rate). Arlovski has had 3 fights since September of 2015, with 2 losses and 1 win (33% win rate). Of Arlovski’s 2 losses, both were within the first two rounds, while Barnett’s loss was nearing the end of round 2.
50% Recent Win Record: Josh Barnett
33% Recent Win Record: Andrei Arlovski
Shared Star Opponents – Barnett Favored
Josh Barnett and Andrei Arlovski have shared fights against a number of opponents and while Barnett has a slightly better history, the times in their careers in which they faced the same opponents are so drastically different that it tips the scale slightly in Barnett’s favor.
Frank Mir (Win / Win)
Roy Nelson (Win / Win)
Ben Rothwell (Arlovski Win / Barnett Loss)
Pedro Rizzo (Barnett Win / Arlovski Loss)
Brett Rogers (Barnett Win / Arlovski Loss)
Former Championship Title – Arlovski Favored
Arlovski is the more recent former Heavyweight Champion, winning his the title in 2005. Being that was 11 years ago, this gives a very slight advantage to Arlovski over Barnett.
2005: Andrei Arlovski (UFC 51)
2002: Josh Barnett (UFC 36)
Recent News / Mental State – Draw
Often times recent news about a fighter’s mental state or training efforts will impact the odds. Andrei Arlovski, as state above, lost his past two fights by TKO. While Barnett lost to Ben Rothwell due to submission – the first time that he ever tapped in his career. Both fighters will go into the September 3rd fight hungry with a win, and also with recent career defining losses.
So, who do you think will win, and what criteria would you factor into the odds? Post a comment below.http://www.mmafightgirls.com/2016/08/23/ufc-fight-night-93-josh-barnett-favored-to-win-over-andrei-arlovski/http://www.mmafightgirls.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/arlovski_barnett.jpghttp://www.mmafightgirls.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/arlovski_barnett-300x300.jpgAndre Arlovski